I think the "every rider goes down" argument is bs. You are setting yourself up for failure. I have never crashed and never will. I am not being cocky or arrogant but I know my limits and I ride within them. Of course riding back and forth to work every day is nothing similar to some of you canyon carvers out there so your results may vary!
My motto I live by is observe, observe, observe. Know what every car around is doing, where are they going, is their turn signal on, is the steering wheel straight or turned, what is the driver doing, where is the driver looking....
I guess being a cop for 10 years and watching traffic 8 hours a day I have gotten pretty good and predicting driver behavior. You can tell which drivers aren't paying attention and are probably going to pull out in front of you. Or the ones who drive with no predictability you steer clear from.
When you plan for everything bad to happen it really doesn't suprise you anymore. What are you going to do when that car pulls out in front of you, there is some gravel in the turn, the car next to you encroaches in your lane, etc.
I always have a plan and an out in case that happens. People pull out in front of me, cut me off, go into my lane, but I am always ready for it so I react accordingly. I would say if I didn't watch traffic, and always have an out I am pretty sure I would be dead. Heck even last week I was cruising down a back road 55mph, car waiting to turn left at an interesection. Saw them creeping, figured they would probably try it, I slowed down... sure as **** they made the turn. I swerved and came to a stop. Should have kicked the side of their door in but I was in uniform so no go...
1. ride within your limits
2. watch traffic and the road
3. always have an out
4. don't ride stupid (too fast, drunk, weave in/out traffic)
5. if you ride to the limit expect to crash and wear the proper gear accordingly
6. and smile every time you fire that beast up!